3.22.20 Outlook

Happy Sunday.


What a wild two weeks it has been as of late. Last week the moves from the lows and highs were amazing. The key is it takes focus and a fast finger in this market to make money. 

The levels are holding on many names (both resistance and support) but they are being front-run, so profit-taking is coming sooner and you have to take what you can get, at least that's what I have been doing. 

I really don't like this idea of buy and hold, it's not what the market is right now. This is pure trading and I have said that for a few weeks. That is going to continue. 

What I have personally been doing is trading smaller and more dated expiration options for this. When I am wrong, I have been getting out fast.

In addition, selling premium on 70+ delta options for the day has proven to be profitable as well. The premiums on some of these names are so high that even with the moves the options are priced in. When selling, the premium is getting sucked out quickly so I will continue with this for a bit. 

Ideas for The Week:

TLT - This has been trading well the past 3 weeks, in fact, it was the leader in trade ideas for March. 
TSLA - The run-up Friday was great and so was shorting the calls. This $100 range that it's in has me focused on this name. Soup/down I don't care, it's moving well and this is great.
VXX - Short gamma dealers last week dropped this a bit. I am not a buyer of it, but I like the 60-120 minute trades it has.
WTI CL - What more could you ask for? These ranges are incredible and a great time to exploit this. I am neither a bull or a bear and I won't put a price target. The levels are working well and that creates trading opportunity.
AAL - This is on the list for a long this week. The move at $18 that sucked in dumb-money was a head-fake, clearly, so the long might be here this week.

Last Weeks Trades: 

TLT - This was big for us on the short side. 

NVDA - short-term, long was good for us 

MCD - This off the lows was great, Started it Tuesday and we had a $30 + run.

I'll say this a final time. This is an ACTIVE-TRADING market. You have to flip positions and be ok with changing bias from the morning to the afternoon session. The overnight holds are sketchy, so, again, I reduce exposure if I do hold overnight.

Trade this market, you can do well if you do.

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Thanks for reading and stay profitable. 

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