Market Outlook 2.24.20

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Happy Sunday.
So short outlook for the week ahead. Almost all of the headlines, finally, are pointing to Corinavirus now being an issue. Shocker. 

Apple, Tesla, Baba, and many other companies are going to be affected by supply chain issues. You would have thought that the markets would have priced this in earlier but who knows. 

The directional portfolio (long calls and puts only) is up +29% so far in the month of February. Trading only began Feb 7 so that missed a few trading days. Overall, there were 2 trades that left $9,000-$12,000 on the table, so it could have been better but we move on.

The good news? There are 5 trading days left in the month and one month left until the end of Q1. 

P&L Report +$11,484 MTD: (Click to enlarge) 

Things to note: 

• VaR was never more than 10% of the portfolio at any single time. What this means is that max $4500 of cash was deployed at any single time. 
• The size of the positions was nominal this month so far 

Most of the trades were long based trades. The overall market is risk-off, but still had the potential for a rally. When that happens, you can still trade net long, but have to be aware of the size of the position, hence smaller trades and less cash deployed. 

• As we head into March the portfolio will likely switch net short with 40%-50% of cash deployed in both inverse ETFs and deep-in-the-money puts. 
• The premium selling and credit spread portfolio P&L updated for February will be uploaded end of the week. 

SPY: 

Real straightforward here. $324-$320 is the support area. 

The rest of the ideas will be posted in the premium directional chat. For more information about what that entail and cost, please email below.

You can access it by emailing: tradewithx@gmail.com