The Week Ahead
Since everyone has now become medical experts on the Corona Virus I am going to leave that alone...
Last Friday's trading action was amazing if you knew what to look for. The moves inside the ES and Nasdaq futures were just incredible. I heard some saying they had trouble with it. Look, you have weekly SPY and QQQ instead.
Don't get stuck with one product. Be agile. Traders always forget this for some reason.
There are many ways to express the idea, stop being lazy, get creative and watch your P&L change.
As far as this week goes, I'll spend time on the 2-year futures and TLT. Equities right now I just cannot get a pulse on.
Energy Markets:
I thought it was interesting that I received a few texts on 'whether it was time to buy oil' on Friday and Saturday.
Ask yourself, why is it time to buy oil? From what I hear there are some major blowups coming because of this.
Mexico has a HUGE hedge on oil prices at $49.
I got my call wrong on XOM two months ago. It happens. I wish more traders looked at the markets from a portfolio construction standpoint instead of the next 1-2 hours.
I think that would improve returns for most but what do I know.
The chart says $39-$42 should be supported on oil. I Like that, but here is the real key:
It's how you structure the long oil idea that matters.
USO sucks, there I said it. Am I going to tell you how I plan on doing it?
No.
But you can subscribe to the Premium and I will.
Premium Subscription:
So the new premium sub is up. Having been in this industry for years I've seen very few subscriptions that I've ever liked and I've tested a few out of curiosity.
Out of all of them, Fly on The Wall was my favorite. I used it in 2011 through 2015, but mainly for the Squawk.
This premium, I know because I've heard it, is going to be 'expensive' - If I am being honest, I hate that. $195 is only expensive if you trade a $1,000 account and think making $15 on trade is trading.
If that's the case, then surely it's expensive.
Sign up here if this is not the case.
Cruise Stocks:
Again, I had a few non-active trader people email in about these names. I don't really think the bottom is in just yet, but I have a small position on. The easier way, at least I think, is to get long January 2022 leaps (I'm talking CCL here).
Yeah, that might be a 6-10 month hold, maybe longer, but again if you have a portfolio with some serious cash in it then that is the play.
And look, if you're my partner, who sells more premium insurance than Jake from State Farm, selling the puts a year out might even be better. Would I do it? Probably not because of BK risk, but it's an idea.
Bonds:
Look, I am going to start by saying this. I am not that great with understanding the mechanics in treasuries, thankfully, I know and recognize that so I go to people smarter than me to get my insights.
TLT worries me right now because of the velocity of the move it had. To me, and to others, it looked like panic buying and I hope that's what it was.
I am short TLT as of Friday and plan to add to it.
Thanks for reading this week's outlook. If you have questions on joining the premium subscription please feel free to email.
Contact:
tradewithx@gmail.com
Comments
Post a Comment